🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.